Prof. Perakis' Energy Related Research and Teaching

 

My involvement with the Energy field started in earnest as early as 1982, when I was doing a 2-year MBA at the Sloan School, MIT in parallel with my Engineering PhD studies, and chose to do my thesis at Sloan on the evolution and the prospects of the tanker shipping industry (crude oil, products, LNG/LPG, chemical tankers, plus pipelines, form the vast majority of the oil (the biggest of fossil and non-fossil fuels, about 40% of world energy consumption). Since then, and for more than 25 years, I have been following many aspects of the oil and energy industry in general, and since the Internet came of age, I do so on a daily basis.

 

After I joined the UM in 1982, I conducted several sponsored research projects funded by the US Maritime Administration, the National and Michigan Sea Grant Programs, and UM Funding (two Rackham grants) to optimize (ie minimize the cost) of routing and scheduling fleets of ships (both strategic and operational, including ship weather routing), and specifically did more than two decades of work on "Fleet Deployment", the minimum-cost operation and scheduling of a fleet of ships (different research for each different ship category, such as Dry and Liquid Bulk ships, and Liner Ships (containerships). In the case of the dry bulk fleets, we minimized cost by optimally selecting the speed of each vessel, so that the total operating cost is minimized. Of course, for most cargo ships, fuel cost is the largest operating cost category, so by minimizing total costs, we usually also minimize fuel cost, fuel amounts, and also emissions, per ton-mile of cargo carried.

 

My work on optimal energy utilization in marine transportation produced at least two (and a third by this June 30) PhD theses:

 

Nikiforos Andrew Papadakis, On the Optimal Ship Weather Routing Problem, December 1987,

 

Zhiyong Yang, Predictions of Modal Shifts in Export Shipments from the Great Lakes due to Mandatory Ballast Water Treatment Using Game Theory, May 2003.

 

(Working with funding from a multi-year Sea Grant project, developed novel game theoretic models and solutions to determine modal shifts, with significant implication in terms of higher fuel consumption and environmental air and noise pollution, highway fatalities and injuries etc, due to proposed measures to limit the introduction of non-indigenous species in the Great Lakes and the Seaway), and several Master's Theses:

 

* Diego Jaramillo, Liner Fleet Deployment Using Linear Programming, December 1989.

* William Mark Bremer, A Scheduling Optimization System for Tanker Shipping, April 1991.

* David Nels Amble, Inland Waterway Industry Study: Technical and Management Improvements, June 1993.

* Jun Li, Models and Statistical Analysis of Deep Draft Ship Data for U.S. Corps of Engineers Port Planning, June 1995

* Ltjg. Brad Rosello, USCG, An Efficient Single-Screw-11,000 TEU Containership: The "Suez Max SS," May 2000.

* Eimhjellen, Ragnar, Investigating an Alternative Solution to Reduce Emissions of Hydrocarbon Gas from Offshore Loading of Shuttle Tankers in the North Sea, (co-advisor: T. Lamb), Exchange Student, Tech. U. of Trondheim, March 2001.

 

Here is a list of relevant publications (starting with the most recent)

 

1.1        S-C. Cho and A.N. Perakis, "An Improved Formulation for Bulk Cargo Ship Scheduling with a Single Loading Port," Maritime Policy and Management, Vol. 28, No. 4, pp. 339-345, 2001

 

(Developed an improved, much more efficient formulation for a bulk ship scheduling problem (first modeled by Ronen 1986), eliminating nonlinearities and numerous unnecessary integer variables, making the solution possible by just using available integer programming software for personal computers. Our approach also provides a natural decomposition structure that can be exploited to develop new heuristics to solve larger, more complex problems.)

 

1.2        Rosello, B.J. and A.N. Perakis, "An Efficient Single-Screw-11,000 TEU Containership: The 'Suez Max SS,' Marine Technology, Vol. 38, No. 4, October 2001. (we obtained 15% lower cost than the next best design (by a Dutch professor) by being able to use the largest possible Diesel engine and a single propeller, instead of two, largely due to the much lower fuel consumption for the same speed)

 

1.3        N.A. Moore and A.N. Perakis, "Development of a Diesel Engine Reliability Database for the U.S. Coast Guard," Marine Technology, Vol. 36, No. 3, pp. 127-142, July 1999. (lowering fuel consumption and overall costs by optimal maintenance for minimal failures)

 

1.4        A.N. Perakis and J. Li, "Recent Technical and Management Improvements in U.S. Inland Waterway Transportation," Maritime Policy and Management, Vol. 26, No. 3, pp. 265-278, 1999. ( We solved an important question of the US Corps of Engineers, i.e.; whether their observed decrease in fuel tax revenue, despite the larger amounts of cargo carried and higher fuel tax per gallon, was due to technical or management improvements; it was clearly due to different transport patterns, a significant reduction in empty return trips, and other market changes)

 

The following significant publications have been summarized in the following book chapter:

 

A.N. Perakis, "Fleet Operations Optimization and Fleet Deployment," chapter 26 in Handbook of Maritime Economics and Business, invited and refereed chapter, C. Th. Grammenos, Editor, Lloyd's of London, pp. 580-597. Book commemorated the 10th Anniversary of the founding of IAME, the International Association of Maritime Economists.

 

The main type of problems I solved here were the optimal determination of individual speeds of fleets of generally different ships in order to reduce fuel consumption significantly and overall operating (variable) costs: The optimal such speed for one individual ship, is generally quite different than the optimal speed when that ship is part of the fleet, a far more difficult problem to solve optimally. This research started in Fall 1982, when I discovered and corrected an error (imposition of an artificial constraint producing suboptimal results) in a 1981 approach to bulk shipping fleet deployment, obtaining at least 15% lower total annual operating costs. Subsequently performed extensive research on more complex and realistic fleet deployment models (1983-87). I then formulated and implemented linear/integer programming models for liner shipping fleet deployment, and for operational tanker scheduling (1989-91). Details can be found in the publications below:

 

We also provided elegant analytical solutions and elliptical bounds for the optimal state evolution for several versions of the deterministic, time-dependent and stochastic ship weather routing problems (1986-89). Portions of that work were published in "flagship" journals of the operations research community. (1.11, 1.12, 1.13 and 1.14 below) The general models developed apply not only to ship routing problems, but to any autonomous robot moving over a non-uniform 2-D (extensible to 3-D) terrain.

 

1.5        B.J. Powell and A.N. Perakis, "Fleet Deployment Optimization for Liner Shipping: An Integer Programming Model", Maritime Policy and Management, Vol. 24, No. 2, pp. 183-192, Spring 1997.

1.6        S.-C. Cho and A.N. Perakis, "Optimal Liner Fleet Routing Strategies", Special Issue of Maritime Policy and Management, Vol. 23, No. 3, pp. 249-259, Fall 1996.

1.7        W. Mark Bremer and A.N. Perakis, "An Operational Tanker Scheduling Optimization System: Model Implementation, Results and Possible Extensions," Maritime Policy and Management, Vol. 19, No. 3, 1992, pp. 189-199.

1.8        A.N. Perakis and W. Mark Bremer, "An Operational Tanker Scheduling Optimization System: Background, Current Practice and Model Formulation," Maritime Policy and Management, Cardiff, Wales, Vol. 19, No. 3, 1992, pp. 177-187.

1.9        D.I. Jaramillo and A.N. Perakis, "Fleet Deployment Optimization for Liner Shipping: Implementation and Results," Maritime Policy and Management, Cardiff, Wales, Vol. XVIII, No. 4, 1991, pp. 235-262.

1.10    A.N. Perakis and D.I. Jaramillo, "Fleet Deployment Optimization for Liner Shipping: Background, Problem Formulation and Solution Approaches," Maritime Policy and Management, Cardiff, Wales, Vol. XVIII, No. 3, 1991, pp. 183-200.

1.11    N.A. Papadakis and A.N. Perakis, "On the Minimal-Time Ship Weather Routing Problem, "Operations Research, Vol. 38, No. 3, pp. 426-438, May-June 1990.

1.12    A.N. Perakis and N. Papadakis, "Minimal Time Vessel Routing in a Time-Dependent Environment," Transportation Science, Vol. 23, No. 4, pp. 266-277, November 1989.

1.13    N.A. Papadakis and A.N. Perakis, "A Nonlinear Approach to the Multi-origin, Multi-destination Fleet Deployment Problem, "Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, Vol. 36, No. 4, pp. 515-528, August 1989.

1.14    A.N. Perakis and N.A. Papadakis, "New Models for Minimal Time Ship Weather Routing," presented at the November 1988 SNAME Annual Meeting and included in the Transactions of the Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers, Vol. 96, pp. 247-269, 1988.

1.15    A.N. Perakis and N. Papadakis, "Fleet Deployment Optimization Models, Part II," Maritime Policy and Management, Cardiff, Wales, Vol. XIV, No. 2, pp. 145-155, Spring 1987.

1.16    A.N. Perakis and N. Papadakis, "Fleet Deployment Optimization Models, Part I," Maritime Policy and Management, Cardiff, Wales, Vol. XIV, No. 2, pp. 127-144, Spring 1987.

1.17    K. Hattori and A.N. Perakis, "The Over tonnage of Large Tankers: Status and Prospects," Journal of Ship Production, August 1986, pp. 163-178.

1.18    A.N. Perakis, "A Second Look at Fleet Deployment," Maritime Policy and Management, Cardiff, Wales, Vol. XII, No. 2, pp. 209-214, Summer, 1985.

 

In May 1989, I was the first in a series of invited academics, to offer a four-hour seminar on Probabilistic Modeling and Optimization in Marine Transportation (heavily based on my own research) at Chevron Shipping Co, San Francisco, CA, and ensuing half-day workshop, interacting with employees at various Chevron Shipping Departments.

More recently, I and a PhD student work on Short Sea Shipping alternatives to Highway Truck (and Train) Transportation, with obvious benefits not only in reduced energy consumption, but also additional savings from the resulting alleviation of highway congestion, including environmental pollution, accidents, fatalities and injuries, and noise pollution. Short Sea Shipping also includes inland waterways, which are already and for a long time, a significant and very efficient component of US marine Transportation. The recently passed Energy Legislation in the USA has a section promoting Short Sea Shipping as a way to achieve the above goals.

I include a large share of my above research in my undergraduate and graduate teaching. In undergrad courses, I include energy-intensive examples in my NA387 Probability and Statistics course, and in grad courses I devote an entire, very popular course (NA582(3)) to study Reliability and Safety Analysis of Systems (Cross-listed as MFG 579), and a large portion of my other graduate course NA580(4), also cross-listed with the Program in Manufacturing, is devoted to teaching state-of-the-art in Fleet Deployment and Ship Routing, as well as the economics of International Trade, with case studies for several different oceangoing cargo ships. We also devote several lectures on Cartels and Cartel Economics, with OPEC used as a case study, and its impact on Tanker shipping."

 

Appendix:

 

Lists of Energy-Relevant Positions, Courses taught, and sponsored research projects and a few additional related publications of Prof. Perakis:

Relevant Positions

 

1989-2002 Associate Research Scientist, U of M Transportation Research Institute

 

1999-Summer Visiting (Guest) Professor (Gastprofessor), Technische Universitaet Berlin, Institut fuer Schiffs-und Meerestechnik, Berlin, Germany. (Did feasibility Econ analysis for inland waterway, highway-decongestion project in Central Europe)

1991 Spring Visiting Professor, Navigation Dept., Institute of Water Resources, Ft. Belvoir, VA. (see list of publications in main body)

1988-Summer Visiting (Guest) Professor (Gastprofessor), Technische Universitaet Berlin, Institut fuer Schiffs-und Meerestechnik, Berlin, West Germany.

 

Relevant Courses

 

NA 580 Optimization, Market Forecasts and Management of Marine Systems, offered for the first time in winter 1998.

NA 586 Shipbuilding and Shipping Markets and Forecasting, offered for the first time in fall 1995.

NA 585 Optimization and Management of Marine Systems, offered for the first time in winter 1994

NA 385 Ship Production and Shipping Management, taught in winter 1992,

NA 685 Special Topics in Marine Systems, winter 1987.

NA 485 Maritime Management II, fall 1986, 7 students.

NA 572 Marine Reliability and Tradeoff Analysis, winter 1984, 15 students. Revised, renumbered NA 582, and renamed, "Marine Reliability and Safety Analysis," winter 1985, taught every year since.

NA 501 Maritime Management III, offered first in winter 1983

Relevant Sponsored Research Projects

 

1.      Spring-Summer 2003, Research Grant Award, Office of the VP for Research and Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studies, University of Michigan.

2.      Office of Naval Research Distinguished Faculty Fellowship, May-September 2003.

3.      "Aquatic Nuisance Species Research and Outreach: Economic Impact of Measures to Limit the Introduction of Non-Indigenous Species on St. Lawrence Seaway Shipping," National and Michigan Sea Grant Programs, $312,000, Oct. 1, 1999-Sept. 30, 2002.

4.      Research (economic feasibility study of marine and coastal transport in Central and Eastern Europe) and teaching (series of lectures on Decision Analysis with marine Applications) Visiting Professorship (Gastprofessur), TU Berlin, June-July 1999, roughly six weeks of Prof. Perakis' UM Salary paid from the Office of the President of TU Berlin, per the UM-TU Berlin Agreement,. Travel expenses covered by the COE Assoc Dean for Academic Affairs, per UM-TUB Agreement

5.      "An Evaluation of the Institute of Water Resources Navigation Programs," sponsored by Battelle, Inc., $41,775, May 12, 1992-September 30, 1993.

6.      "Estimating Marine Transportation Costs," U.S. Army Corps. of Engineers, Institute for Water Resources, Fort Belvoir, VA 22060-5586, May 15-August 23, 1991, Scientific Services Agreement subcontract from Battelle Labs, Contract No. DAAL03-86-D-0001. Army Summer Faculty Program Award.

7.      Economics/Optimization analysis of a new passenger-ferry SWATH design, Visiting Professorship (Gastprofessur), TU Berlin, 3 months (minus one week) of Prof. Perakis' UM salary paid from the Office of the President of TU Berlin, per the UM-TU Berlin Agreement, for his June 7-Aug 31, 1988 stay in TU Berlin

8.      "Optimization Schemes for Rational, Computer-Aided Fleet Deployment," Maritime Administration University Research Program, $44,925, August 15, 1983-August 31, 1985.

9.      "Problems in Optimal Fleet Deployment," Horace H. Rackham Faculty Grant, $9,280, May 1983-December, 1985.

 

Relevant Tauber Manufacturing Institute/Industry Joint Projects

 

1.1  "Lean Transportation in a Consumer Product Company," McKinsey Consulting Co. and Coca Cola Co./Minute Maid Division (Cleveland, OH and Paw Paw, MI), (with Prof. Izak Duenyas, UM School of Bus. Admin.), April 1, 2000- September 15, 2000.

1.2  "Part Number Level Program Management," Navistar Corp., Ft. Wayne, IN, (with Prof. John Ettlie, UM School of Business Admin.), April 1, 1999- September 15, 1999.

1.3  "Optimization of Logistics Forecasting Business Processes," Intel Corp., Phoenix, AZ., (with Prof. Ana Muriel of UM School of Business Admin.), April 1, 1999- Sept. 15, 1999

 

Relevant Publications (additional)

 

10.1                A.N. Perakis, "Pre-Feasibility Study of Proposed East-West Inland Waterway Lines between Central and Eastern Europe," Report, Institut für Schiffs- und Meerestechnik, Technische Universität Berlin, July 20, 1999.

10.2                A.N. Perakis, "Recent Technical and Management Improvements in U.S. Inland Waterway Transportation," U. of M., Dept. of NA&ME, November 1994.

10.3                A.N. Perakis, D.N. Amble and Jun Li, "An Evaluation of the Institute of Water Resources Navigation Programs, Part II: Inland Waterway Operations," Final Report for research project sponsored (through Battelle, Inc.) by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Institute of Water Resources, Fort Belvoir, VA, June 1993.

10.4                A.N. Perakis and Jun Li, "An Evaluation of the Institute of Water Resources Navigation Programs, Part I: Deep Draft Shipping," Final Report for research project sponsored (through Battelle, Inc.) by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Institute of Water Resources, Fort Belvoir, VA, June 1993.

10.5                A.N. Perakis, "An Evaluation of the Institute of Water Resources Vessel Cost Estimation Procedures," IWR Report 91-R-8, August 1991, 106 + vi pp.

10.6                A.N. Perakis, "Economics and Optimization Issues for a SWATH Passenger-Ferry Design," Technical Report, Technische Universitaet Berlin, Institut fuer Schiffs- und Meerestechnik Bericht Nr. 88/7, Berlin, Germany, August 1988.

 

Relevant Publications in Popular Press/Magazines:

 

"Fuel for Thought", Forum Article, OR/MS Today, August 1995.

 

Relevant Invited Publications and Presentations:

 

12.1                A.N. Perakis, "Models for Estimating Dimensional and Capacity Characteristics of Oceangoing Vessels for Use in Port Planning," paper presented at the International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME) Conference, London, England, September 22-23, 1997.

12.2                A.N. Perakis and N.A. Papadakis, "Stochastic Minimal Time Vessel Weather Routing," invited paper, presented at the Fifth International Conference on Stochastic Programming, August 13-18, 1989, Ann Arbor, Michigan.