2011 went down as one of the four most deadly U.S. tornado seasons on record. Looking like an early contender for the top three, 2012 is already cutting a swath of destruction from Texas to Michigan. But there are ways to address the looming threat…
1. To form, tornadoes first require a moist layer of air
2. Secondarily, there must be a perturbation in the upper atmosphere
3. A third component in tornado formation is wind shear (when two air masses with differing direction and speed meet)
4. To trigger the funnel cloud, the storm must hit a cold front or dry line
5. A tornado is born
In Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas between January 9 and January 11, 2012, multiple tornadoes touched down in the area. It begs the question, why so early?
Frank Marsik, an Associate Research Scientist and Lecturer within Michigan Engineering's Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences (AOSS) states, "This past winter, two large-scale phenomena (La Nina and Arctic Oscillation) combined in a way that kept arctic air well north of the U.S.-Canadian border resulting in a very mild winter for much of the United States."
He continues, "In fact, the Cooperative Weather Observation Station here at AOSS reported the warmest March on record for the site (dating back to 1880). The ability for warm and humid conditions to move so far northward so early in the season has contributed to our early thunderstorm and severe weather activity."
An illustrative, dramatic example of his point hit close to the U-M Ann Arbor campus on March 15, 2012. A violent storm system composed of wind, rain and hail (combined with unseasonably warm weather) generated a tornado that touched down in southeast Michigan. Up to 50 houses were damaged when the twister tore through the town of Dexter. Fortunately, in spite of the excessive property damage, no lives were lost.
On the day following that Dexter storm, Michigan Engineering's Arthur F. Thurnau Professor Perry Samson, (AOSS) remarked in his Extreme Weather class that, "Let's put this in perspective here… We have storms occurring here in Michigan in March, normally I am discussing ice storms, or dense fog, or other more wintery types of meteorological phenomena. So this is an unusual event, to have these many storms this far north at this time of the year."
"One of the difficulties in discussing trends in tornado occurrences is the fact that the statistics are somewhat skewed," poignantly puts Marsik. "Decades ago, tornadoes were only reported when spotted by the human eye.
Today's Doppler radars are able to detect tornadoes remotely, allowing for the detection of tornadoes where populations are sparse."
Courtesy of NOAA
With the rise of social media and the proliferation of video recording devices, it isn't too hard to imagine that people are reporting storms more frequently and capturing more dramatic imagery to share.
Many lives have been lost. Billions of dollars in property has been destroyed and echoing what Marsik and Samson said about this strange year, the federal government released preliminary findings for 2012 -- and it's been a very active year. Again, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA):
"Warmer-than-average conditions across the eastern U.S. also created an environment favorable for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, there were 223 preliminary tornado reports during March, a month that averages 80 tornadoes annually. The majority of the tornadoes occurred during the March 2nd-3rd outbreak across the Ohio Valley and Southeast, which caused 40 fatalities. Total losses from this event are estimated to exceed $1.5 billion, making this the first event of 2012 to exceed $1 billion in damages and losses."
But the true/official key to monitoring the stormy weather is the velocity tracking Doppler radar. Doppler radar is so accurate, researches can predict, within a fairly precise and reasonable range, exactly where tornadoes will manifest. Subsequently, we know a lot more about them and can keep our eye on the storms, like roaming monsters, as they're tracked across the countryside.
"Doppler radar technology can detect large-scale rotation within thunderstorms before smaller-scale tornado formation occurs. The data from these technologies allows the NWS to improve the lead times with which they can issue severe weather watches and warnings, allowing the public to take appropriate actions," says Marsik.
"The March 15 Dexter tornado," Marsik continues, "is one example of a tornado warning that was able to be issued based upon Doppler radar prior to the actual touchdown of the tornado. That five to ten minute lead-time was crucial to saving lives."
When the question "What can be done?" was posed to Samson, he was of the same sentiment. However, he did mention the concept of "mini-Doppler."
He mused, "Yeah, you could take small Doppler devices and attach them to cell phone towers. It would be so accurate, that theoretically, you could develop some sort of opt-in system based on text messages or even direct phone calls. You could have a warning come through, if say, a tornado was headed straight at your house."
